JAPcelona - Japon Barcelona BLOG -

Este blog va dirigido a extranjeros hispanohablantes interesados en la cultura japonesa. Lo presenta un japones que vive en Espana y que muestra su cultura. Una de las partes mas importantes de esta cultura tiene que ver con temas relacionados con el desarrollo de las nuevas tecnologias.
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la burbuja inmobiliaria
Ayer, en el programa 30minuts de TV3 se hablo sobre la burbuja inmobiliaria. Nosotros conocemos muy bien este tema porque en japon paso lo mismo al principio de la decada de 1990.
En japon, la tierra tiene un valor significativo. La consideramos como una de las fortunas del individuo o familia. Por tanto, mas de la mitad del precio de la casa es el precio de la tierra. En algun caso, la tierra sin casa tiene mas valor que la tierra con casa. Por tanto, los japoneses que tienen dinero invierten en la tierra o casa.

Este concepto vive en la economia japonesa tambien. Despues de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, la economia de japon subio un 10% de desarrollo cada ano. El factor mas importante, que ha mantenido este desarrollo, es el valor del tierra. En japon, existia la leyenda de que el precio de la tierra nunca bajaria. Por tanto, todo tipo de empresas, desde las grandes a las pequenas, pueden pedir prestamos de dinero para su trabajo desde el banco a traves de su tierra. Y cuando la empresa gana el dinero, invierte en tierra y, a traves de su tierra, puede pedir mas dinero, por tanto, puede aumentar sus beneficio.

Asi, el precio del tierra, casa y piso ha subido mucho en poco tiempo. Bajo esta condicion, ha ocurrido que la tierra que se ha comprado, se puede vender otro ano por el doble de precio. Ademas de esto, gracias a la politica de japon en la decada de 1980, el dinero es abundante. Esto quiere decir que las empresas y los individuos tenían mucho dinero y no sabian como utilizarlo. Esto impulsa a invertir en tierra. De este modo, Japon empezo a entrar el la burbuja.

Sin embargo, la burbuja no es una entidad real y no es el precio real, sino es un fenomeno de un momento. Esto significa que no es para siempre. En japon, ese momento fue el principio de la decada de 1990. De repente, su precio ha bajado. En la burbuja, el precio de la tierra y piso era casi 7 o 10 veces mas del salario anual. Pero ahora, es casi 5 veces y su precio ha bajado 30-50% del precio en el burbuja.

De este modo, la economia japonesa ha entrado en una decada que se llama perdida de 10 anos, indica que la decada de 1990 es una epoca de desarrollo nulo. Porque el colapso de la burbuja afecta al toda la economia, no solo a la tierra y piso.

No se exactamente que ocurrira en Espana que basa su desarrollo economico en la construccion. Si el precio del piso baja, muchas persona estarian contentas, pero creo que tienen que saber que otras cosas tambien pasaran.

| urbanismo | 19:32 | comments(151) | trackbacks(2) | ↑PAGE TOP -
コメント
El 30 minuts del domingo por la noche ha tenido mucho impacto, todo el mundo habla de la burbuja inmobiliar. No es un tema nuevo pero hasta ahora hablar de burbuja era ser radical. Como dices q pasava en Jap? con la tierra, hasta el domingo muchima gente pensava q el precio de pisos y casas solo pod subir y subir.
Es cierto q si la burbuja se desinfla y especialmente si explota, muchas personas se encontraran con graves problemas econ?icos (y con hipotecas mayores q el precio de mercado de los pisos) y q la econom se resentir mucho. Pero el crecimiento espa?l lleva mucho tiempo viviendo de una construcci? q se basa en la especulaci? (en el programa hablavan de los barrios vacs de Madrid) y en un abuso del medio ambiente (recordemos los numerosos casos de fraude urbantico tipo Marbella o Andraix).
| Montse | 2007/03/20 9:33 PM |
Estuve pensando en si emitir ese programa habia sido bueno o malo. Pero creo que esta muy bien que se hable sobre la burbuja, que se hable en los medios de masas quiero decir, porque por mil sitios alternativos de Internet y tambien en sus antipodas, o sea, por prensa economica especializada (The Economist, Financial Times, OCDE y un largo etc.), ya hace mucho tiempo que estan llegando las voces de aviso. Y aqui ni caso, la burbuja engordando y la gente sin pensar que la caida es peor cuanto mas alto se esta. Y si hablabas de que esto podia tener un final (y no un happy end precisamente) te miraban con cara rara y soltaban eso de que la vivienda nunca baja.

Creo que el valor del programa reside en haber hecho que la gente se replantee si esa maxima es cierta. Lo es casi siempre, pero las excepciones suelen ser casos bastante traumaticos, la dinamica de cualquier crack especulativo lo es (y historicamente ha habido ya unos cuantos como para no saber de que va el tema). Espero que la burbuja se deshiche lentamente, que se la vaya comiendo la inflaci&oacute;n poco a poco, porque si explota, lo hara en nuestras narices, tengamos piso o no (aunque estos ultimos saldran mejor parados). Si en Japon provoco un decada de recesion (&iexcl;!&iexcl;) qu&eacute; no hara en este pais de pandereta...
| mercheBCN | 2007/03/20 11:58 PM |
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